Múltiplos financieros bayesianos para valorar acciones de empresas que comercializan commodities. Caso: Ecopetrol en Colombia
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Date
2018
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Corporación Universitaria Lasallista
Abstract
Introduction. Currently, there are many
fluctuations in the global economic environment
and the demand and supply of assets or products
act as a force that determines the prices according
to which they are bought and sold, but sometimes,
the price reflected in an action does not it reflects
the price of generating value over time. Objective.
Assess the performance and evolution of the
financial multiples in the time of the company
Ecopetrol de Colombia, projecting the price of the
stock in the secondary market to five years.
Material and methods. Five phases were
considered: analysis of the information provided by Bloomberg of the Ecopetrol company, generation of a structure of weighting of the financial multiples
through a first Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model,
projection of the variables used in the valuation for
the next five years, calculation of the financial
multiples of the theoretical results and finally
perform Montecarlo simulations based on
probabilistic distributions established for each
input variable.Results. With the values obtained
through the simulation and the price of the action in
the secondary market, a Relative Comparison
Indicator (CRI) was calculated, with the intention of
establishing projections through a second
Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model, achieving a novel
procedure of medium-term estimate of the share
value for the company Ecopetrol in five (5) future
years: from 2016 to 2020. Conclusions. Through
this procedure, it was possible to verify and apply
the valuation of companies through financial
multiples, without the need to use comparable
companies or competitors in the same market.
Description
Keywords
Corporación Universitaria Lasallista, Ecopetrol, Empresas - Valoración, Valoración económica, Modelos lineales, Modelo lineal dinámico (MLD), Oferta, Demanda
Citation
Revista Lasallista de Investigación Vol. 15 N. 1